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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It frequently acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who engineered the most dramatic turnaround receives the award. In practice, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or merely the most shocking upset.

However this year's race is distinctly different. The group of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners declining and longtime underperformers improving collectively. Under an normal season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's competing with five other exceptional candidates.

This is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still