A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
